Cognitive Bias and Pattern Seeking


Excerpt from Michael Shermer's TED Talk (2005)


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Cognitive Biases: What They Are, Why They're Important


www.criticalthinkeracademy.com http As critical thinkers, it's important to understand how we OUGHT to reason. This is what we learn when we study logic, argumentation and other normative theories of reasoning. But it's equally important to understand how we IN FACT reason, how our minds ACTUALLY work. Every critical thinker should be familiar with the concept of a "cognitive bias". In this episode of The Critical Thinker podcast I give an overview of what cognitive biases are and why they're important. In the next episode I'll look at some examples of cognitive biases in action.


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1. Cognitive Bias


Part 1 of a 2-part talk. The views expressed are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizers of SkeptiCamp DC We humans like to believe that we use reason to understand the world around us, but we're not so smart. Rationally thinking through situations is cognitively expensive, so we more often rely on heuristics as fast mental shortcuts to solve problems. Often they suffice, but often they do not. The systematic errors due to our dependence on such heuristics contributes to cognitive bias. This talk is a survey of some of the important, pervasive cognitive biases from which we suffer. The talk also discusses plausible evolutionary explanations for the existence of such cognitive biases.


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Cognitive Bias 101


A film made as a project for a documentary class at Georgia State in 2010.


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Bias Bingo: How Cognitive Bias Generates Belief


This video presents a case study of a typical (in fact, randomly selected) talk from the LDS General Conference. Throughout the talk, we pick out textbook bases of psychological manipulation, and show how they are used to instill ill-founded beliefs into the audience. This demonstration represents how virtually all religious beliefs are generated. Basic human cognitive bias is brazenly exploited, while objective skepticism is frowned upon or ignored. Because the entire process is inherently manipulative and dishonest, such activity only serves as evidence against the integrity of religious beliefs. All video of Dallin Oaks is taken WITHOUT permission from www.lds.org, and used under the criticism clause of the Fair Use Act. If the owners of this material wish me to remove it, please contact me. This video is provided copyright free for educational purposes only. You may freely download it and copy it.


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Cognitive Biases and the Authority of Science


www.criticalthinkeracademy.com In this episode I talk about the relevance of cognitive biases for understanding how science works. I argue that, once we understand how cognitive biases lead us into error, and how scientific methods are designed precisely to neutralize these errors, then we have a compelling argument for accepting the authority of science (especially on matters where there's a consensus among the relevant experts in the scientific community). The discussion ranges widely, from seeing faces in tree trunks, to hearing hidden messages in Britney Spears songs, to the vaccine-autism debate!


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John Green is an IDIOT! And so are you.


In which Hank talks about how freaking stupid we are, and why. Though I would like to have gone into more detail...it's a complicated topic. Just check out this absolutely epic list of cognitive biases on wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org John is biased to like people who have pre-ordered The Fault in Our Stars: dft.ba The Believing Brain t.co


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Cognitive Biases


Can our awareness of cognitive biases help us make more effective decisions?


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Cognitive Biases [Brain Food]


Here's the webpage I mentioned. Go there! en.wikipedia.org Might as well post the marshmallow video whilst I'm at it: www.youtube.com


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2. Cognitive Bias


Part 2 of a 2-part talk. The views expressed are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizers of SkeptiCamp DC. We humans like to believe that we use reason to understand the world around us, but we're not so smart. Rationally thinking through situations is cognitively expensive, so we more often rely on heuristics as fast mental shortcuts to solve problems. Often they suffice, but often they do not. The systematic errors due to our dependence on such heuristics contributes to cognitive bias. This talk is a survey of some of the important, pervasive cognitive biases from which we suffer. The talk also discusses plausible evolutionary explanations for the existence of such cognitive biases.


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IGNITE BALTIMORE 1: BILL MILL


Ifyou had five minutes on stage, what would you say? What if you only got 20 slides and they rotated automatically after 15 seconds? At every Ignite Baltimore, 16 artists, technologists, thinkers, and personalities will answer this challenge.


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HATEU: Example of Dunning-Kruger effect cognitive bias


Me singing HATEU by The-Dream (demo version) Music: www.youtube.com Once upon a time We swore not to say goodbye Something got a hold of us And we changed And you sat alone in pride And I sat at home and cried How'd our fairy tale just end up this way? We went round for round Til' we knocked love out We were laying in the ring Not making a sound And if thats a metaphor of you and I Why is it so hard to say goodbye I can't wait to hate you Make you pain like I do Still can't shake you off I can't wait to break through these emotional changes Seems like such a lost cause I can't wait to face you Break you down so low that theres no place left to go I can't wait to hate you oooh This was a love that no one Not no one could explain And I wish I could press reset and feel that feeling again I sit and press rewind and watch us every night Want to pause it but I cant make it stay We went round for round Til' we knocked love out We were laying in the ring Not making a sound And if thats a metaphor of you and I Why is it so hard to say goodbye I can't wait to hate you Make you pain like I do Still can't shake you off I can't wait to break through these emotional changes Seems like such a lost cause I can't wait to face you Break you down so low that theres no place left to go I can't wait to hate you oooh No need to call my phone Because I changed my number today And matter fact I think im moving away (away) Sorry the frustrations got me feelin a way And I just keep having one <b>...</b>


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UCD Business Alumni - Leader's Insights Series - Dr. Karan Sonpar - Overcoming Cognitive Biases


Dr. Karan Sonpar shares his insights and provides practical tips for business leaders seeking to overcome cognitive biases and improve strategic decision making in their organisations.


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Sami Zaatari Has Some Cognitive Bias Stuck Between His Teeth


You want some toothpaste for that?


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TCT 015: Confirmation Bias and the Evolution of Reason


www.criticalthinkeracademy.com In this episode of The Critical Thinker Podcast I take a look at a new approach to understanding cognitive biases like confirmation bias. This approach, developed by Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber, is known as the Argumentative Theory of Reason, and it's grounded in an evolutionary approach to understanding human psychology. I give an overview of the theory and reflect on its implications for understanding who we are as critical thinkers.


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New Additions - 19c: Being biased about Bias


Every one of us, knowingly or not, can be caught out by our own cognition. Bias is not too good for science, we need to reduce and hopefully eliminate any bias from our research, otherwise the results may not accurately reflect what is going on. This video (it's almost a slideshow really) gives a quick look at a number of cognitive biases that I have seen to affect Nibiru claims, for believers and skeptics alike. Hopefully, recognizing these biases in your own approach to any topic will put you in a much better position. Have any thoughts, questions, suggestions or corrections? Leave a message in the comments.


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Cognitive Bias A Pattern Of Deviation


I may now understand the process of what I don't know, but I still don't understand what I just said. Thank you for watching!


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"The Bias Song" original acoustic song inspired by Hank Green of the vlogbrothers


oh yeah, and i'm going to vidcon and it would be so lovely to meet some of you! comment if you're going and we can meet up and hang and i'll sign your breasts and it'll be an all around good time! this is a song about cognitive bias and i hope you enjoy it! lyrics: I've been watching too much Grey's Anatomy Affected by my conjuction fallacy I swear on my life I have Takotsubo cardiomyopathy Everything you do seems so perfect It must be that halo effect You're so beautiful So attractive with your body symmetrics It's just that Forer effect It's stuck way deep up in my head And I read the things you write And I'm convinced that they're about me From my illusion of transparency I knew everything about your personality I just forgot the trait Where you never ever loved me It's just this cognitive dissonance Because you didn't return the sentiment But my reverse cryptomnesia Says that's not how it went It's that I-knew-it-all-along effect Won't let me take another breath Holding it all in for so long Just wishful thinking, optimism bias Forget my Semmelweiss reflex I've got a confirmation bias And on top of all of that I may just be a hypochondriac free mp3 download: soundcloud.com en.wikipedia.org and also, i have no idea when my kickstarter page will be active. i've sent countless emails to kickstarter and amazon payments to no avail. i'll let you guys know when it's active, but i doubt it will be very soon. find me: www.youtube.com www.facebook.com www.cdbaby.com www.itunes <b>...</b>


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Daniel Kahneman Interview - Nobel Laureate - The Guardian


Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and father of behavioural economics, talks about the cognitive biases that affect our decision-making, a topic explored in his book, Thinking Fast and Slow. Kahneman posits two cognitive systems, which he labels 'System 1' - given over to snap, intuitive judgments, and 'System 2' - which we use consciously to solve problems in a more rational way.


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Bias 2: Confirmation Bias


The second in the cognitive bias series. Enjoy.


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How to learn, the process of information, confirmation bias


this video will briefly talk about a wide variety of subjects on how to learn, cognitive biases, logical fallacies and things of that nature, enjoy!


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Me VS God, Part V: Why We Believe


This video explains the origins of many religious beliefs, and why those origins are not trustworthy avenues to truth. Human cognitive bias is well-documented for its power to push men into belief, even when those beliefs have been entirely fabricated out of nothing. An example case from the peer-reviewed literature (Festinger & Carlsmith, 1957) is discussed to show how this happens, and under what conditions. Then a talk from the LDS church is presented as a textbook example of how psychological conditioning can exploit this exact effect to create belief in a religious faith. Cognitive bias is a great way of generating belief, but a lousy way of generating knowledge. Unfortunately, religion gives higher priority to belief, so it does not matter how manipulative the "proof" for God may be. Anything that generates converts is happily exploited, while skepticism is always shunned. This is where religious converts come from. The only way to stop it is to educate people on their own psychological fallibility.


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On Pirates...


First a discussion on cognitive bias. Today on the top Youtube videos is a cute one talking about Thomas Edison's cognitive bias. (and his views on punishment) www.youtube.com


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TMT SJT Cognitive Dissonance Motivated Reasoning Information Bias Solomon on Becker


SCADs are State Crimes Against Democracy-American Behavioral Scientist-Feb. 2010 abs.sagepub.com Now you can show peer reviewed material about the conspiracy to people that thought you were crazy Terror Management Theory-System Justification Theory-Cognitive Dissonance Theory, mortal salience, motivated reasoning & confirmation bias offer insight into reasons why it feels good to case build for fantasies TMT-You know you are here but you also know that you will not always be here & that you may die at any minute from a meteor or a heart attack & you also know that you are no more significant than a roach or a radish We have an ego-maniacal desire to believe we are a person of value. We want to be heroes, we need to know our ideas are important. We need to be needed & we seek approval from others to fill those needs. The idea that we are finite biological reactions does not sit well with most people We have a compulsion to believe we live in a world of meaning & not a universe of black holes & big bangs so we create CULTure with stories about creating the earth in six days, great floods, walking on water, rising from the dead & other miracles to test our faith We know from observations that this Universe is about 13.7 Billion years old & expanding faster all the time from our point of origin We know at the quantum level its scalar energy waves that make particles, depending upon the observer's intent & quarks make up this energy We also know matter is made from this energy <b>...</b>


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Leaders Insights Series - Dr. Karan Sonpar


Dr. Karan Sonpar shares his insights and provides practical tips for business leaders seeking to overcome cognitive biases and improve strategic decision making in their organisations.


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Bias 3: The Forer Effect


Here's a new cognitive bias. I had fun coming up with a new example for the effect. ProfMTH on why Jesus was not the Messiah Part 1: www.youtube.com


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Pitfalls of Thinking: Confirmation Bias (1/2)


Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for, interpret or remember information in a way that confirms preconceptions or working hypotheses. People can reinforce their existing attitudes by selectively collecting new evidence, by interpreting evidence in a biased way or by selectively recalling information from memory. Some psychologists use "confirmation bias" for any of these three cognitive biases, while others restrict the term to selective collection of evidence, using assimilation bias for biased interpretation. I explore the use of confirmation bias in three areas: 1. Alternative health practices 2. Intelligent design creationism 3. HIV/AIDS denialism


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TMT SJT Cognitive Dissonance Motivated Reasoning Information Bias Becker


Terror Management Theory - System Justification Theory - Cognitive Dissonance Theory, Mortal salience, motivated reasoning and confirmation bias offer insight into reasons why it hurts to think about reality and feels good to case build for fantasies SCADs are State Crimes Against Democracy - American Behavioral Scientist - Feb. 2010 abs.sagepub.com Now you can show peer reviewed material about the conspiracy to people that thought you were crazy We know from observations that Universe is about 13.7 Billion years old and expanding faster all the time from our point of origin We know at the quantum level its scalar energy waves that make particles, depending upon the observer's intent & quarks make up this energy We also know matter is made from this energy in the form of atoms which are mostly empty space so matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration that we can see & touch or measure with our instruments Keep in mind that we are all on a planet spinning on our axis at about 1000 miles per hour circling our sun at about 60000 miles an hour while the sun is traveling around the Milky Way at about 800000 mph and the Milky Way is moving around the Universe at about 3 million mph so any feeling of motionlessness & permanence is an illusion. Add to this the ellipses of the orbits of all the bodies and we get wave fluctuations in everything from eclipses, environmental changes and human behaviors The average person is aware of 50000 self talks during their waking <b>...</b>


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Pitfalls of Thinking: Confirmation Bias (2/2)


Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for, interpret or remember information in a way that confirms preconceptions or working hypotheses. People can reinforce their existing attitudes by selectively collecting new evidence, by interpreting evidence in a biased way or by selectively recalling information from memory. Some psychologists use "confirmation bias" for any of these three cognitive biases, while others restrict the term to selective collection of evidence, using assimilation bias for biased interpretation. I explore the use of confirmation bias in three areas: 1. Alternative health practices 2. Intelligent design creationism 3. HIV/AIDS denialism


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How Do We Come to Know Things?


Here is what can be considered the first in a series on how cognitive bias causes intelligent people to stay religious despite being aware of facts that go counter to their beliefs.


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How to Think Rationally About the Future [UKH+] (1/10)


Over the past forty years, science has built up a substantial body of experimental evidence that highlights dozens of alarming systematic failings in our capacity for reason. These errors are especially dangerous in an area as difficult to think about as the future of humanity, where deluding oneself is tempting and the "reality check" won't arrive until too late. How can we form accurate beliefs about the future in the face of these considerable obstacles? This talk will outline ways of identifying and correcting cognitive biases, in particular the use of probability theory to quantify and manipulate uncertainty, and then apply these improved methods to try to paint a more accurate picture of what we all have to look forward to in the 21st century. ** About the speaker: Paul Crowley is a cryptographer and computer programmer whose work includes breaks in ciphers designed by Cisco and by Bruce Schneier. His website is www.ciphergoth.org LessWrong.com This lecture was recorded on 3rd July 2010 at the UKH+ meeting. For information on further meetings please see: extrobritannia.blogspot.com


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Dr. Itiel Dror on forensic decision making, bias, and fingerprint identification


Biometric and forensic identification bring together a number of domains in human information processing within cognitive psychology. These domains include pattern recognition, mental representations, decision making, expertise, statistics, and knowledge acquisition. Other areas that are vital for biometric and forensic applications are the use and integration of technology and selection & training of examiners (including issues of confirmation & other cognitive biases, and optimizing decision making). For publications and presentations on these issues, please see: www.CCI-hq.com/index.php?siteID=3 or write to Dr Itiel Dror: Itiel@CCI-hq.com


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11-23-11 - Obama Mic Check, Occupy Miscarriage, and More! - Status Update w/ Bryan Cain!


Thanks for watching! Please comment, rate and subscribe! Check me out at: Website: www.bryancain.net Twitter: twitter.com Facebook: www.facebook.com My KIVA lending team: kiva.org Links (many found on reddit.com): Sikh's being absolutely crazy, holy cow: #statusupdate #amazing : www.youtube.com Ignorance is bliss: #statusupdate #peopleavoidinformation : www.sciguru.com Obama gets mic checked by Occupy Wall St.: #statusupdate #civilrights : www.youtube.com A protester hans the mic-checked message to Obama from Occupy Wall St.: #statusupdate #civilrights : paid2see.tumblr.com Miscarriage potentially the result of police action at Occupy Seattle: #statusupdate #theyaredehumanizingus : slog.thestranger.com LA working with protesters, awesome. :) : #statusupdate #civilrights : latimesblogs.latimes.com After the economic crisis, Iceland re-drafted its constitution, using the Internet: #statusupdate #important : bellacaledonia.org.uk UC to strike on the 28th: #statusupdate #civilrights : bicyclebarricade.wordpress.com Cognitive bias and system 1 and 2 thinking, highly recommend everyone watch this: #statusupdate #selfawareness : www.guardian.co.uk Disgusting. This is what happens when religion trumps logic: #statusupdate #separationofchurchandstate : edition.cnn.com South Korean lawmaker tear gasses parliament to protest US free-trade: #statusupdate #wild : news.yahoo.com Gene manipulation makes muscles twice as strong: #statusupdate #thefutureisnow #captainamerica : www <b>...</b>


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Fundamental Attribution Error Bias.avi


A description and explination of the Fundamental Attribution Error Bias common to most individualistic countries.


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How to Think Rationally About the Future [UKH+] (3/10)


Over the past forty years, science has built up a substantial body of experimental evidence that highlights dozens of alarming systematic failings in our capacity for reason. These errors are especially dangerous in an area as difficult to think about as the future of humanity, where deluding oneself is tempting and the "reality check" won't arrive until too late. How can we form accurate beliefs about the future in the face of these considerable obstacles? This talk will outline ways of identifying and correcting cognitive biases, in particular the use of probability theory to quantify and manipulate uncertainty, and then apply these improved methods to try to paint a more accurate picture of what we all have to look forward to in the 21st century. ** About the speaker: Paul Crowley is a cryptographer and computer programmer whose work includes breaks in ciphers designed by Cisco and by Bruce Schneier. His website is www.ciphergoth.org LessWrong.com This lecture was recorded on 3rd July 2010 at the UKH+ meeting. For information on further meetings please see: extrobritannia.blogspot.com


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(1/2) Pitfalls of Thinking: Confirmation Bias


Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for, interpret or remember information in a way that confirms preconceptions or working hypotheses. People can reinforce their existing attitudes by selectively collecting new evidence, by interpreting evidence in a biased way or by selectively recalling information from memory. Some psychologists use "confirmation bias" for any of these three cognitive biases, while others restrict the term to selective collection of evidence, using assimilation bias for biased interpretation. I explore the use of confirmation bias in three areas: 1. Alternative health practices 2. Intelligent design creationism 3. HIV/AIDS denialism


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How to Think Rationally About the Future [UKH+] (4/10)


Over the past forty years, science has built up a substantial body of experimental evidence that highlights dozens of alarming systematic failings in our capacity for reason. These errors are especially dangerous in an area as difficult to think about as the future of humanity, where deluding oneself is tempting and the "reality check" won't arrive until too late. How can we form accurate beliefs about the future in the face of these considerable obstacles? This talk will outline ways of identifying and correcting cognitive biases, in particular the use of probability theory to quantify and manipulate uncertainty, and then apply these improved methods to try to paint a more accurate picture of what we all have to look forward to in the 21st century. ** About the speaker: Paul Crowley is a cryptographer and computer programmer whose work includes breaks in ciphers designed by Cisco and by Bruce Schneier. His website is www.ciphergoth.org LessWrong.com This lecture was recorded on 3rd July 2010 at the UKH+ meeting. For information on further meetings please see: extrobritannia.blogspot.com


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Minority burden


How many times have you experienced this? Video transcript: zinniajones.com Follow me: twitter.com facebook.com zinniajones.com


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Beware of the Granfalloon


Julia Galef from measureofdoubt.com talks about the dangers of identifying yourself with a particular group, and how it can distort your thinking.


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